Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images The Market Ignores GCT's Success... For Now Since I upgraded my investment rating on GigaCloud Technology Inc. ( GCT ) stock back in July 2024 , the price has managed to rise by ~35%, similar to the S&P 500's move-up for the same period. However, since 2024, GigaCloud has significantly scaled its GMV and overall operations, and the recently released Q1 2...
Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images The Market Ignores GCT's Success... For Now Since I upgraded my investment rating on GigaCloud Technology Inc. ( GCT ) stock back in July 2024 , the price has managed to rise by ~35%, similar to the S&P 500's move-up for the same period. However, since 2024, GigaCloud has significantly scaled its GMV and overall operations, and the recently released Q1 2026 earnings results once again proved my core bullish stance on the stock. The market seems to be ignoring GCT's success right now because the stock hasn't moved much on its strong double-beating and generally positive guidance. I think such deviations shouldn't last long. Assuming that GCT keeps executing on its plan as it did throughout the past few years, and with the buybacks in place, I believe the market is likely to adjust the stock price to the upside eventually. Let's take a look at the latest earnings . GigaCloud showed total revenues of $359.5 million (+32.2% YoY) with gross profit expanding by 34.7% YoY (~$85.8 million) and adjusted diluted EPS coming in at $1.24 (+49.4% YoY). On the top and bottom lines, the firm has beaten the consensus estimates by ~5% and 27.35%, respectively, according to Seeking Alpha . Seeking Alpha, GCT's Q1 press release Despite the fears that some analysts had initially regarding the GMV dynamics (Gross Merchandise Value in this case), GCT's core GigaCloud Marketplace saw its GMV hit $1.66 billion on a TTM basis - compared to last year, it's a solid 17.5% increase. Importantly, what kept the gross margins in great shape is the rise of the 3P seller GMV that added 23.7% YoY and reached ~$908.6 million. 3Ps are now over 54% of the whole GMV pie, and it has room for further revenue share mix expansion, in my view, because the number of active 3P sellers went up by 19.3% to 1,377 (it's still a low base to work with), and active buyers were up 25.2% to 12,473 ( both sides are expanding, which is great to see). The key unit economics metric...
Earnings Call Insights: Kinetik (KNTK) Q1 2026 Management View "Kinetik delivered record earnings in the first quarter," said CEO Jamie Welch, adding, "We've seen strong conversion of opportunities into new and amended agreements across both Texas and New Mexico" (President, CEO & Director Jamie Welch). Welch highlighted a major New Mexico amendment: "a significant contract amendment with a large ...
Earnings Call Insights: Kinetik (KNTK) Q1 2026 Management View "Kinetik delivered record earnings in the first quarter," said CEO Jamie Welch, adding, "We've seen strong conversion of opportunities into new and amended agreements across both Texas and New Mexico" (President, CEO & Director Jamie Welch). Welch highlighted a major New Mexico amendment: "a significant contract amendment with a large existing customer in New Mexico that expands the original dedicated acreage by roughly 25%... and extends terms through 2039," and he said "approximately 75% of legacy Durango gas processing volumes have now been amended over the past four months" (President, CEO & Director Welch). On potential New Mexico processing growth, Welch said the sour conversion progress and contract actions have created "strong commercial momentum in support of potentially advancing a processing capacity expansion at Kings Landing complex" (President, CEO & Director Welch). Welch emphasized capital-efficient power demand linkages: "We signed a zero CapEx interconnection with Pecos Power" and framed it as "a fee-based template for monetizing our existing footprint as Permian power generation demand grows" (President, CEO & Director Welch). CFO Trevor Howard reported record profitability and cash generation: "First quarter adjusted EBITDA of $251 million was a quarterly record," and "Distributable cash flow totaled $181 million and free cash flow was $101 million" (Senior VP & CFO Trevor Howard). Howard tied the quarter to basis-driven marketing strength: "Spread-based marketing gains have more than offset approximately 170 million cubic feet per day of Waha price-related production shut-ins in the quarter" (Senior VP & CFO Howard). Outlook Howard reaffirmed full-year guidance: "We are affirming our 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $950 million to $1.05 billion" (Senior VP & CFO Howard). Howard disclosed a key assumption change behind the reaffirmation: "We now forecast low to mid-single-digit...
visualspace/E+ via Getty Images Investment thesis Note: This is an update to my previous article . Vital Farms ( VITL ) remains a differentiated premium egg brand with stronger long-term economics than traditional producers, but the latest quarter showed that pricing power is weaker and demand more elastic than I previously believed. The stock now appears much more reasonably valued after the shar...
visualspace/E+ via Getty Images Investment thesis Note: This is an update to my previous article . Vital Farms ( VITL ) remains a differentiated premium egg brand with stronger long-term economics than traditional producers, but the latest quarter showed that pricing power is weaker and demand more elastic than I previously believed. The stock now appears much more reasonably valued after the sharp selloff, but uncertainty around margins and competitive advantages make me lean towards a HOLD rating until I find out if the problem is truly temporary or structural. But if you are an aggressive and highly contrarian investor, there are reasons to justify a BUY rating. Quarterly update On May 7, Vital Farms presented its Q1 2026 results and honestly... they weren't good at all. Reported sales were $187.2 million, a 15.4% year-over-year increase, which I suppose isn't so bad, but the problem is that analysts were expecting over $200 million in sales (a nearly 30% increase). Profitability fared much worse, as analysts were expecting 15 cents per share of net income, and not only was the profit below expectations, but it was actually NEGATIVE 3 cents. Q1 2026 Estimate Actual Revenue $208.7M $187.2M EPS $0.15 -$0.03 Click to enlarge Author's compilation And if we look at the guidance, the company stated that they expect now revenue of $775–$800 million , representing around 5% growth, and adjusted EBITDA of $0-$10 million. Again, this is hardly positive considering that just one quarter ago, the guidance for fiscal year 2026 was $900-$920 million for net revenue (21% growth) and $105-$115 million for adjusted EBITDA. This was a massacre, to be honest. After this, the shares reacted by dropping 25% in a single day, something that, at first glance, seems reasonable to me given the unpleasant surprise investors experienced. The elephant in the room: the price of eggs I recently covered Cal-Maine ( CALM ), a competitor of Vital Farms but with a much larger scale that allows it ...
The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) is the largest ETF in the world, with assets of more than $925 billion. The Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ) is one of the best-performing ETFs of the past two decades. Both are easily defensible choices if you're investing for the long term. If you're investing for the here and now, however, I think one of them has an advantage. The biggest difference in the t...
The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) is the largest ETF in the world, with assets of more than $925 billion. The Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ) is one of the best-performing ETFs of the past two decades. Both are easily defensible choices if you're investing for the long term. If you're investing for the here and now, however, I think one of them has an advantage. The biggest difference in the two funds is their tech exposure. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF has 33% invested in tech, while the Invesco QQQ ETF is way up at 64%. That makes the latter more directly reflective of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. Continue reading
Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Nintendo ( NTDOY ) said it will raise the price of its Switch 2 console to $500 from $450, signaling mounting profitability pressure on its flagship gaming device as it enters its second year on the market. The effective date of price revisions in the United States, Canada, and Europe is September 1, 2026. Nintendo forecasts sales of 16.5M Switch ...
Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Nintendo ( NTDOY ) said it will raise the price of its Switch 2 console to $500 from $450, signaling mounting profitability pressure on its flagship gaming device as it enters its second year on the market. The effective date of price revisions in the United States, Canada, and Europe is September 1, 2026. Nintendo forecasts sales of 16.5M Switch 2 consoles for the year ending next March, a figure that disappointed investors after the new device sold 19.9M units through the end of March 2026. The company expects software sales to drive much of its earnings this year as its hardware business continues to face pressure from a global electronics component shortage. The company also cited higher shipping and logistics costs linked to the Iran conflict, and estimated a ¥100B hit from rising memory, material, and tariff-related expenses. Nintendo also expects legacy Switch hardware sales to fall 47.4% to 2M units for FY27, with software sales declining 23.3% to 105M units. “In light of the strong sales performance in the first year following launch and price adjustments, we expect unit sales for the fiscal year ending March 2027 to decline year over year. That said, we view this as a healthy level of sales for Nintendo Switch 2 in its second year after launch, and we continue to anticipate further growth in its installed base,” the firm said. Shares of Japanese console makers have come under pressure this year amid a prolonged memory chip crunch, with Sony Group ( SONY ) down 24% year to date and Nintendo ( NTDOY ) falling 28%. Overall, Nintendo ( NTDOY ) issued a downbeat outlook for performance in the current year, with a forecast of ¥370B ($2.4B) in operating profit, below the ¥480B average of analyst estimates. In FY26, sales increased 98.6% to ¥2,313B, operating profit rose27.5% to ¥360.1B, ordinary profit rose 45.6% to ¥542.1B, and profit attributable to owners of parent rose 52.1% to ¥424B. More on Nintendo Co., Lt...