Getty Images Introduction When I wrote an earlier article, “ The U.S. Economy in Five Years ,” there were certain events that were not integrated into my views that have occurred since. The conflict between the U.S. and Israel versus Iran is a case in point. There were also conflicting views on how tariffs would impact the economy, since the negotiated trade deals were yet to be completed. And we ...
Getty Images Introduction When I wrote an earlier article, “ The U.S. Economy in Five Years ,” there were certain events that were not integrated into my views that have occurred since. The conflict between the U.S. and Israel versus Iran is a case in point. There were also conflicting views on how tariffs would impact the economy, since the negotiated trade deals were yet to be completed. And we did not know whether the tariffs would be deemed legal at the time either. My Investing Philosophy I am a long-term investor, so I do not pay much attention to the current machinations of market swings or one-year forecasts. I prefer to look for quality companies that are currently priced at a discount to their potential growth prospects over at least the next five years. Therefore, when I look at the macroeconomic picture, I am interested more in how I see things playing out a few years down the road rather than over only the next twelve months. I know that major policy changes will have market implications in the short term, but I prefer to look at the entire picture rather than one side, including the likely long-term implications that most investors (and economists) may have not yet considered. I focus on stocks of companies that I believe will provide double-digit total returns, including reinvested dividends. I prefer companies that have a history of increasing their respective dividends consistently, year after year, with a yield on my initial investment of 3% and a history of raising those dividends every year at a pace that exceeds my long-term inflation rate expectation. With that said, I will provide my views on how I expect Fed policy will play out over the longer term (over the next decade or more). This time frame is what interests me most when making investment decisions. The Warsh Plan There are three steps to the Warsh Plan that are being talked about by most media outlets. But the endgame ( which is less talked about) is the important part to understand: F...
Oral fish oil intake may not improve and could even speed up cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease, a research team from China’s Army Medical University has found. Many older adults are accustomed to taking omega-3 supplements to help protect cognitive function. However, findings from the Chinese study challenge this view. The study was based on an analysis of more than 800 older adults in Nort...
Oral fish oil intake may not improve and could even speed up cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease, a research team from China’s Army Medical University has found. Many older adults are accustomed to taking omega-3 supplements to help protect cognitive function. However, findings from the Chinese study challenge this view. The study was based on an analysis of more than 800 older adults in North America, around half of whom carry the dementia-risk gene APOEε4. The data showed that those...
ArLawKa AungTun/iStock via Getty Images Vertex, Inc. ( VERX ) is a stock I just started following, so I'm trying to decide whether they are worth buying into or not. They provide tax software for enterprises, so my first thought is that they must compete with Intuit ( INTU ), as Intuit's QuickBooks software targets small businesses with taxes and other aspects of running a small business. The more...
ArLawKa AungTun/iStock via Getty Images Vertex, Inc. ( VERX ) is a stock I just started following, so I'm trying to decide whether they are worth buying into or not. They provide tax software for enterprises, so my first thought is that they must compete with Intuit ( INTU ), as Intuit's QuickBooks software targets small businesses with taxes and other aspects of running a small business. The more I looked into it, it sounds like Thomson Reuters ( TRI ) may be more of a direct competitor, since Vertex competes mostly for larger enterprise business. Vertex was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Pennsylvania. For many decades they focused on-premise software solutions before going to a cloud based business in 2013. Workday Select Partner One of the most compelling reasons to buy Vertex to me seems to be their relationship with Workday ( WDAY ). Workday is, of course, one of the largest players in the human capital management space, or essentially payroll and other HR software essentially. Vertex was named a Workday Select Partner , which essentially means that they have Workday's stamp of approval for their tax software and that it is integrated right into Workday's own software platform. It has been a great growth engine for Vertex to be so tightly integrated with a behemoth in the HCM space like Workday. The growth for Vertex has been very good, with them going from ~$300M in revenue in 2019 to almost $750M today: Data by YCharts Unfortunately, this growth has not made for better margins over time. They have seemingly been stuck at teetering on the edge of profitability despite having very good gross margins. Data by YCharts AI Is Driving the Software Market The lack of bottom-line movement hasn't seemed to be the main issue for Vertex, though. The real issue seems to be that they are a tax Software as a Service (SaaS) company. Pretty much all SaaS companies have been hit hard in the last 9-12 months due to AI. As soon as it became obvious just how good AI was ...
Willie B. Thomas/DigitalVision via Getty Images Given the current market environment and with the volatility we have seen in rates, we are revisiting one of our preferred high-yield vehicles, the PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund ( PDI ). It has been about three months since we told you to stop overpaying for this instrument. A cursory review of comments received there shows that many investors need to ch...
Willie B. Thomas/DigitalVision via Getty Images Given the current market environment and with the volatility we have seen in rates, we are revisiting one of our preferred high-yield vehicles, the PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund ( PDI ). It has been about three months since we told you to stop overpaying for this instrument. A cursory review of comments received there shows that many investors need to change their thinking. What do we mean? The price paid matters. Trading dividends for principal is a risky game. For cash flow at all costs, well, maybe you do not care about the price you pay. Almost immediately after publishing that piece, of course, we saw a very weak one-month period for stocks, and finally PDI had a rare buying opportunity in the $16s, exactly where we guided investors should have looked. While it may not seem like much, if you waited just several weeks to pull the trigger, you saved about a year of dividend payments against your principal. And you even have some paper capital gains right now if you can believe it. Data by YCharts Here at $17.70, we are once again at a sizable premium because there has been net asset value (or NAV) erosion thanks to the extreme volatility we have seen in rates. Further, when some of the dividend is a return of capital, it can also hurt NAV. Today, we continue to rate the name a hold and reiterate that we would suggest buyers look for a lower price. Hopefully you caught a price point in the $16s. One flip side to this argument to change your thinking is that if you are a dollar-cost-average type investor, where every 2 weeks you invest in a series of instruments, this will balance out the premium you pay for this fund (as well as others you may own). We can get behind that. So here we are revisiting the name and doing a quarterly review of this name. In our view, the most effective way to build a position in PDI is to purchase shares when they are trading near or, ideally (yet very, very rarely), below NAV. You might wait...
As ceasefire begins, Zelenskyy says ‘Red Square is less important to us than the lives of Ukrainian prisoners who can be brought home’ Russia’s annual military parade celebrating the allies’ victory over Nazi Germany in the second world war has begun in Red Square . For the first time in nearly 20 years , the event – typically a bombastic show of military strength – will take place without a displ...
As ceasefire begins, Zelenskyy says ‘Red Square is less important to us than the lives of Ukrainian prisoners who can be brought home’ Russia’s annual military parade celebrating the allies’ victory over Nazi Germany in the second world war has begun in Red Square . For the first time in nearly 20 years , the event – typically a bombastic show of military strength – will take place without a display of tanks and ballistic missiles over fears of a long-range attack by Ukrainian drones. In recent days, there have been many appeals and signals regarding the setup for tomorrow in Moscow in connection with our Ukrainian long-range sanctions. The principle of symmetry in our actions is well known and has been clearly communicated to the Russian side. An additional argument for Ukraine in determining our position has always been the resolution of one of the key humanitarian issues of this war – namely, the release of prisoners of war. Red Square is less important to us than the lives of Ukrainian prisoners who can be brought home. Continue reading...
Cinthia Aguilar/iStock via Getty Images By Tae Yoon Kim, CFA, FRM, Manager, Global Investment Research | Alex Nae, M.Sc., Quantitative Research Analyst, Global Investment Research Following Brazil [2], we continue the series of short insights into LatAm markets with an overview of Mexico. Since 2023, Mexico has become the most important US trading partner, accounting for 15.4% of total US imports;...
Cinthia Aguilar/iStock via Getty Images By Tae Yoon Kim, CFA, FRM, Manager, Global Investment Research | Alex Nae, M.Sc., Quantitative Research Analyst, Global Investment Research Following Brazil [2], we continue the series of short insights into LatAm markets with an overview of Mexico. Since 2023, Mexico has become the most important US trading partner, accounting for 15.4% of total US imports; IMF[3] estimates indicate that between 2017–2023, $70 billion (or circa. 45%) of Mexico’s export gains were attributable to US tariffs on China. This trade diversion effect has been further reinforced by global supply-chain shifts following the Covid pandemic and geopolitical disruptions, including the war in Ukraine[4]. Together, these factors have positioned Mexico as a central hub in North American manufacturing. The FTSE Mexico Index performance (TR, USD) was 54.1% in 2025 and 10.6% year-to-date[5] in 2026, whilst the FTSE Emerging and FTSE All-World indices returned 26.5% (7.3% YTD) and 23.1% (6.8% YTD), respectively. As a net exporter of crude oil, Mexico is relatively insulated from the effects of the Iran conflict. This aligns with our earlier note on Brazil, where we discussed how EM markets that are net oil exporters show a higher level of resilience to oil supply shocks. Thus, a continuation of the conflict is likely to have a milder negative impact on growth. Nearshoring ("Friendshoring") Figure 1: Value of US imports (U.S. Census Bureau). Source FTSE Russell/LSEG Datastream. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Please see the end for important legal disclosures. Mexico has been one of the largest beneficiaries of the nearshoring trend, as proximity to the US makes it the de facto manufacturing hub for North America. As such, Mexico is part of the USMCA[1], where compliant exports receive preferential treatment, boosting trade and improving competitiveness for the country. Over 80% of its exports (>25% of GDP) go to the US and supply chains are de...