Dirk von Mallinckrodt/iStock via Getty Images By Min Joo Kang , Senior Economist, South Korea and Japan Exports jumped in March thanks to surge in chip exports South Korean exports rose 48.3% year-on-year in March (vs 29% in February, 44.8% market consensus). Among 15 major export items, 10 items gained, largely due to favourable price effects. Semiconductor exports rose an impressive 151.4%, buil...
Dirk von Mallinckrodt/iStock via Getty Images By Min Joo Kang , Senior Economist, South Korea and Japan Exports jumped in March thanks to surge in chip exports South Korean exports rose 48.3% year-on-year in March (vs 29% in February, 44.8% market consensus). Among 15 major export items, 10 items gained, largely due to favourable price effects. Semiconductor exports rose an impressive 151.4%, building on the 160.6% rise in February and 102.7% gain in January. Semiconductor exports jumped 139% YoY in the first quarter. Rising chip prices led to sharp increases in exports of computers and SSDs in March, up 189% and 218%, respectively. We expect strong demand for AI and memory chips to continue, with no significant signs of a slowdown in AI investment globally. But clearly, this is likely to add to inflationary pressures on IT goods globally – and, eventually, more burdens for consumers. To date, semiconductors haven’t experienced significant shortages of raw materials. However, inventories of essential materials are expected to be depleted within the next few quarters. If supply disruptions persist, adverse effects could become evident in the second half of 2026. Given Korea’s high dependence on chips for growth, negative impacts could intensify later this year. Chip exports surged while other exports also improved in 1Q26 Source: CEIC Oil and petrochemical rise, exports expected to decline from April We observe that recent increases in oil prices boosted petroleum and petrochemical exports in March, up 54.9% and 5.8%, respectively. However, the data showed that exports of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene fell in volume in the later part of March. The decline is mainly due to the implementation of export controls on 13 March. Price effects worked favourably for now. However, since Korean exporters rely heavily on Middle Eastern products, we are more cautious about the export outlook for these sectors in the near term. The government has banned the exports of Naphtha and...
China’s exports of jet fuel have declined sharply in recent weeks amid the US-Israel war on Iran, leaving countries including Australia and Japan facing a supply crunch and scrambling to find alternative sellers. China is Asia-Pacific’s largest jet fuel and kerosene exporter, but shipments from the country fell nearly 40 per cent month on month in March to 204,000 barrels per day, figures from tra...
China’s exports of jet fuel have declined sharply in recent weeks amid the US-Israel war on Iran, leaving countries including Australia and Japan facing a supply crunch and scrambling to find alternative sellers. China is Asia-Pacific’s largest jet fuel and kerosene exporter, but shipments from the country fell nearly 40 per cent month on month in March to 204,000 barrels per day, figures from trade data provider Kpler showed. The cutback is likely to hit hardest in Australia and Japan, which...
UK and European government bonds surged, sending yields tumbling, as oil prices slumped on hopes that the Iran war may end in the coming few weeks. Yields on gilts and euro area government debt in France and Italy slid 10 basis points or more, as markets scaled back bets for interest rate hikes this year. The German 10-year benchmark fell six basis points to 2.94%, the lowest since March 18. Brent...
UK and European government bonds surged, sending yields tumbling, as oil prices slumped on hopes that the Iran war may end in the coming few weeks. Yields on gilts and euro area government debt in France and Italy slid 10 basis points or more, as markets scaled back bets for interest rate hikes this year. The German 10-year benchmark fell six basis points to 2.94%, the lowest since March 18. Brent crude oil dropped 5% to $98.65 a barrel. The latest moves follow comments from US President Donald Trump, who said he foresaw the war ending within two to three weeks. Bond markets have been roiled over the past month since the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran as severe disruption to Middle East energy supplies and other exports sent inflation expectations soaring. The probability of a rate hike in April has now dropped below 50% for the European Central Bank and to about one-in-three for the Bank of England. Over the course of the year, markets are pricing monetary-policy tightening of about 60 basis points and 43 basis points respectively, the least since the middle of last month. “Following headlines about messages exchanged between the warring parties, markets will want to see whether this leads to a path toward de-escalation,” ING Bank NV strategists including Benjamin Schroeder wrote in a note. “The question that remains is how quickly energy flow can be fully restored, given the destruction already incurred.”