Statistically speaking, outsize stock market returns and President Donald Trump in the White House have gone hand in hand. During the president's first, non-consecutive term, he oversaw gains in the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) , broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) , and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) of 57%, 70%, and 142% . Although volatility has been prevalent ...
Statistically speaking, outsize stock market returns and President Donald Trump in the White House have gone hand in hand. During the president's first, non-consecutive term, he oversaw gains in the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) , broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) , and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) of 57%, 70%, and 142% . Although volatility has been prevalent in Trump's second term, we've witnessed an encore performance from equities. Since his inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have rallied 13%, 20%, and 28%, respectively, through the closing bell on May 4, 2026. President Trump delivering a speech. Image source: Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok. Continue reading
Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding is preparing an overhaul of how local consumers shop online, betting that the next trend will feel more like chatting with an artificial intelligence chatbot rather than typing keywords into a search bar. Users of the company’s flagship AI assistant Qwen – one of the most popular in China – would soon be able to use natural language to “talk” with the...
Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding is preparing an overhaul of how local consumers shop online, betting that the next trend will feel more like chatting with an artificial intelligence chatbot rather than typing keywords into a search bar. Users of the company’s flagship AI assistant Qwen – one of the most popular in China – would soon be able to use natural language to “talk” with the chatbot app to find and buy items listed on Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall shopping platforms,...
The Return Of History: Deutsche On Gold, The Dollar, & The Monetary Future Authored by Mallika Sachdeva and Michael Hsueh via Deutsche Bank Research Institute, In 1989, Francis Fukuyama argued that humanity had reached “the end of history”. In the years that followed, the US became the uncontested hegemon, global trade exploded in a US-defined liberal order, developed market central banks sold gol...
The Return Of History: Deutsche On Gold, The Dollar, & The Monetary Future Authored by Mallika Sachdeva and Michael Hsueh via Deutsche Bank Research Institute, In 1989, Francis Fukuyama argued that humanity had reached “the end of history”. In the years that followed, the US became the uncontested hegemon, global trade exploded in a US-defined liberal order, developed market central banks sold gold, while emerging markets accumulated vast amounts of US dollar FX reserves. We argue that the end of history has come to an end. The world is back in a superpower struggle; the US is retreating from free trade, alliances, and security provision; the Great Economic Moderation is behind us; and the dollar banking system has been weaponized. The “return of history” has big implications for gold and the dollar. Contrary to conventional thinking, we argue that the share of gold in central bank reserves is not driven by the global monetary system, but by the global geopolitical environment. Gold’s decline as a share of reserves did not happen with the fall of Bretton Woods in the 1970s, but the fall of the Berlin Wall and the assertion of US hegemony in the 1990s. As tectonic geopolitical plates shift again, the share of US dollars in central bank reserves is once more in decline. It has fallen from over 60% to just 40%, while gold’s share has tripled from its lows to 30% today. We create a framework for the share of gold in central bank reserves as a function of: (1) the volume of gold held by central banks; (2) the price of gold; and (3) the amount of global FX reserves. We see all three pillars on the move, driven by EM. EM central banks have been actively buying gold and driving upward pressure on prices; crucially - their FX reserves may also now begin to structurally decline. A “return of history" would be consistent with gold getting to at least a 40% share of global reserves. There is significant scope for EM to add towards this. We find that EM countries with closer non...