tum3123/iStock via Getty Images Eric Fine - 2026 has been a really interesting year so far, mainly due to risks from developed markets. We've had the AI credit concerns that spread into broader tech stocks. We had JGB selling off. We had a new Fed confirmation that was supposed to be hawkish. We had gold up, silver up, gold down, silver down. And what happened yet again, EM sailed right through it...
tum3123/iStock via Getty Images Eric Fine - 2026 has been a really interesting year so far, mainly due to risks from developed markets. We've had the AI credit concerns that spread into broader tech stocks. We had JGB selling off. We had a new Fed confirmation that was supposed to be hawkish. We had gold up, silver up, gold down, silver down. And what happened yet again, EM sailed right through it and is performing incredibly well. So that's so far how the year is progressing. Very similar to last year, a lot of noise, mostly from developed markets and EM benefiting or at least sailing through. The other big reminder is geopolitics happened in 2026. Venezuela, the first reaction to the market was, oh my gosh, risk. Well, the risk was good for Venezuela and good for neighboring Colombia, which was at one point the best performing local currency bond market in the world. So again, geopolitics, which get processed by most people thinking of their portfolios as not negative for EM, not risky, but it represents upside risk. The case for EM bonds remains the same as far as we're concerned. The core of the case is the idea of fiscal dominance, that emerging markets do not have fiscal dominance and developed markets where most investors have their fixed income exposure are subject to fiscal dominance. Fiscal dominance is that government debt, when it's too high, means the central bank can't hike rates as much as they would otherwise. Now the good thing about emerging markets is they have the good fundamental of low levels of government debt, but they're paying you a very high yield despite that. So the case for EM bonds is they're in good shape fiscally and pay you a lot. And if you want a finance version of it, they're low risk and high return. The carry on EM bond funds is around 7%. And the volatility on EM bonds is lower than it is on DM bonds. So if you've got higher return or yield or carry and lower risk measured by fundamentals or by volatility, that's pretty much a...
Stadtratte The inflation rate in the Euro Area decreased to 1.70% in January from 2% in December of 2025, meeting market estimates. The Consumer Price Index decreased 0.6% M/M in January 2026, compared to initial estimates of a 0.5% fall. More on Euro Area Beyond The Rate Hold: Examining The ECB's Path Forward Amidst Euro Strength U.S. Dollar Stakes Get Raised - What To Do Now In The Rates Space? ...
Stadtratte The inflation rate in the Euro Area decreased to 1.70% in January from 2% in December of 2025, meeting market estimates. The Consumer Price Index decreased 0.6% M/M in January 2026, compared to initial estimates of a 0.5% fall. More on Euro Area Beyond The Rate Hold: Examining The ECB's Path Forward Amidst Euro Strength U.S. Dollar Stakes Get Raised - What To Do Now In The Rates Space? Technical Levels For Major FX Pairs Ahead Of The FOMC Rate Decision Germany's GDP grows 0.3% in Q4 2025 European shares fall as tariff confusion returns, car sales drop
Jonathan Kitchen/DigitalVision via Getty Images My thesis In my view, SuRo Capital ( SSSS ) started 2026 with a radically changed situation, where easy money had already been earned. After successful CoreWeave and ServiceTitan position realization in 2025 share price increased to around the 9.50 level, practically aligning with the last announced $9.23 in net asset value. This fundamental change f...
Jonathan Kitchen/DigitalVision via Getty Images My thesis In my view, SuRo Capital ( SSSS ) started 2026 with a radically changed situation, where easy money had already been earned. After successful CoreWeave and ServiceTitan position realization in 2025 share price increased to around the 9.50 level, practically aligning with the last announced $9.23 in net asset value. This fundamental change from the historical 20-30% discount, with which the fund was traded from 2022 to 2024, occurred in the bear market. The market effectively got rid of the safety margin, fully accounting for OpenAI and the potential of a new TensorWave investment , which is a $20 million commitment. Currently, investors are buying private assets in the open market with no discount, and this historically has been a risky entry to the Business Development Company sector. Funds financial well-being improved, though it doesn‘t guarantee further price growth. In 2025, they paid out $0.50 dividends, which shows the ability to generate liquidity, though 5.3% dividend yield is not enough to compensate for the risks. If the technology sector‘s IPO market freezes again. In the portfolio, there are 35 companies that need to justify the very high valuations, and new speculations in crypto infrastructure tokens add additional volatility not typical of conservative funds. If NAV growth slows down, SSSS shares have a high chance to come back to a normal discount trading range, which would mean a rapid 15-20% price drop without any fundamental worsening in the portfolio. This is not a value investment anymore, this is a bet on the continued expansion of the AI infrastructure bubble. Business model and product rotation SuRo Capital Corp. In 2025, made a total portfolio transformation, going from a general venture capital fund to a concentrated bet on AI‘s infrastructure. The business model right now works like a rotational engine: the fund is aggressively liquidating old, irrelevant positions to finance new...
Morsa Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Back in early November of last year, I made the decision to upgrade shares of Southside Bancshares ( SBSI ) from a ‘sell’ to a ‘hold’. This decision was based on solid asset quality and evaluation that I considered to be reasonable. The company was exhibiting significant improvements in key areas, with deposit growth resuming, uninsured deposit exposure ...
Morsa Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Back in early November of last year, I made the decision to upgrade shares of Southside Bancshares ( SBSI ) from a ‘sell’ to a ‘hold’. This decision was based on solid asset quality and evaluation that I considered to be reasonable. The company was exhibiting significant improvements in key areas, with deposit growth resuming, uninsured deposit exposure declining, and net interest margin and credit quality metrics looking good. Admittedly, certain income statement data was worsening. But at the end of the day, I viewed the worst is having passed. Since then, the stock has performed even better than expected, with shares up 16.8% while the S&P 500 is up 3.7%. This is great to see. However, the picture for the business is still not to the point that I would like it to be in order to justify another upgrade. Asset quality is around where I would like it to be. And on top of this, the book value and tangible book values for the company are far from bad. Deposits have unfortunately declined. But on the whole, the balance sheet looks relatively sturdy. Unfortunately, the stock is not yet ready for an upgrade, though it is getting close. So for now, I will stick with my ‘hold’ rating. Taking a fresh look at Southside Bancshares Fundamentally speaking, there are key areas where Southside Bancshares has improved. And there are some areas where the picture has worsened. Deposits certainly deserves some attention here. At the end of the final quarter of the 2025 fiscal year , the company had deposits of $6.87 billion. This was unfortunately below the $6.96 billion the company ended the third quarter with. However, it did still represent a nice increase over the $6.65 billion the institution had at the end of 2024. This rise is fantastic to see. For years, some banks struggled with the deposit picture. Worries in the financial sector, combined with high interest rates that gave deposit there's the opportunity to put their funds elsewh...
Research shows social deprivation reduces range of microbiome leading to worse physical and mental health People living in the poorest areas of the UK have a less diverse range of bacteria in their gut, leading to worse health outcomes than their more affluent counterparts, according to a study. The research, led by academics at King’s College London and the University of Nottingham, analysed the ...
Research shows social deprivation reduces range of microbiome leading to worse physical and mental health People living in the poorest areas of the UK have a less diverse range of bacteria in their gut, leading to worse health outcomes than their more affluent counterparts, according to a study. The research, led by academics at King’s College London and the University of Nottingham, analysed the gut bacteria of 1,390 female twins across the UK alongside their residential postcodes in order to identify the area’s socioeconomic status. Continue reading...
Nvidia Corp. ’s earnings report on Wednesday afternoon comes at a critical time for the US stock market with investors increasingly nervous about the outlook for artificial intelligence. While most Wall Street pros are anticipating strong results from the chipmaker amid ballooning spending on computing infrastructure, there is less certainty about how its shares — and others — will respond at a ti...
Nvidia Corp. ’s earnings report on Wednesday afternoon comes at a critical time for the US stock market with investors increasingly nervous about the outlook for artificial intelligence. While most Wall Street pros are anticipating strong results from the chipmaker amid ballooning spending on computing infrastructure, there is less certainty about how its shares — and others — will respond at a time when fears about AI disruption and the staying power of heavy investments are dominating the tape. “Even if they have tremendous numbers, we know the markets are really fickle,” said Ken Mahoney , president of Mahoney Asset Management. After powering the market higher for much of the past few years, Nvidia shares have gone cold in recent months, rising just 3.4% since the start of the fourth quarter, as investors question the hundreds of billions of dollars customers like Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp. are spending on AI. Meanwhile, investors have been fleeing sectors seen as potentially under threat from AI disruption. The selloff is weighing on the S&P 500 with shares of members like Intuit Inc. , Gartner Inc. and Workday Inc. down more than 39% since the start of the year. A Bloomberg index tracking the Magnificent Seven, which also includes Apple Inc. , Amazon.com Inc. , Meta Platforms Inc. and Tesla Inc. , is down 5.5% in 2026. Nvidia, however, is still the most valuable company in the world at $4.7 trillion, giving it enormous sway over the market-cap weighted S&P 500 . The index has fallen more than 1% from a late January peak. Nvidia’s revenue is expected to jump 68% to $65.9 billion in its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended on Jan. 31. Adjusted earnings are anticipated to rise 72% to $1.53 a share, according to the average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Another metric investors will be watching closely is gross margin, a measure of profitability that came under pressure last year due to high production costs for Nvidia’s Blackwell chips. The firm...