sharply_done/E+ via Getty Images Diamondback Energy ( FANG ) looks to slightly boost production in FY 2026 relative to last year, but CEO Kaes Van't Hof said Tuesday that he is growing "more confident about the macro," as fears of a global oil glut are fading thanks to resilient energy demand. "In general, we just feel more confident about the macro after a couple of big shocks last year on the su...
sharply_done/E+ via Getty Images Diamondback Energy ( FANG ) looks to slightly boost production in FY 2026 relative to last year, but CEO Kaes Van't Hof said Tuesday that he is growing "more confident about the macro," as fears of a global oil glut are fading thanks to resilient energy demand. "In general, we just feel more confident about the macro after a couple of big shocks last year on the supply side and the demand side," Van't Hof said on Diamondback's ( FANG ) Q4 earnings conference call . "Some people have been talking about [oversupplying the market] for two years. It just hasn't seemed to happen as aggressively as some expected," the CEO said on the call. "As we turn to higher demand in the summer and driving season... people will start to find reasons to be less bearish." Van't Hof reiterated comments made in a letter to shareholders that worries about too much crude have failed to materialize, and the danger appears to be receding. While Diamondback ( FANG ) said it will continue to take a cautious approach, pledging to hold production roughly steady with last year's Q4, it plans for $3.6B-$3.9B in capital spending this year, up from $3.5B in 2025, with new exploration in the Barnett and Woodford shales, the deepest development zones in the Permian region. The company said it has assembled the rights to nearly 200K acres for work in those zones, which could materialize into 878 gross (561 net) locations over time. The early Barnett production will help Diamondback ( FANG ) slightly boost its oil production in 2026 from 497.2K bbl/day in 2025, with Van't Hof saying he expects 505K bbl/day of oil this year with total expected output in the 926K-962K boe/day range, compared to last year's 921K boe/day. Diamondback ( FANG ) shares closed -0.7% on Tuesday after reporting Q4 adjusted earnings that missed expectations while revenues fell 9% Y/Y to $3.38B; the company swung to a net loss of $1.46B from a net profit of $1.07B in the year-earlier quarter due to a...
shih-wei/E+ via Getty Images Large-cap US equity indices made their last all-time highs at the end of January on 1/28, which was also the last Fed Day. As of 2/23, the S&P 500 was down about 2% since 1/28, while the mega-cap-heavy Nasdaq 100 was down 5%. Within the broader large-cap Russell 1000 (R1K), the average stock in the index is down just 0.3% since 1/28. But we've seen the market lose abou...
shih-wei/E+ via Getty Images Large-cap US equity indices made their last all-time highs at the end of January on 1/28, which was also the last Fed Day. As of 2/23, the S&P 500 was down about 2% since 1/28, while the mega-cap-heavy Nasdaq 100 was down 5%. Within the broader large-cap Russell 1000 (R1K), the average stock in the index is down just 0.3% since 1/28. But we've seen the market lose about $1.34 trillion in market cap over this time frame. Most of that can be chalked up to the "AI Doom" trade, where groups like Software & Services and Financial Services have been pummeled because of the threat that AI will make them obsolete. As shown below, Software has seen its market cap fall by nearly $1.5 trillion since 1/28, while Financial Services has fallen nearly $500 billion. Media & Entertainment has also seen a $451 billion drop, followed by Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail with a decline of $415 billion. Combined, these four groups have lost about $2.8 trillion in value. Below are a series of graphics highlighting recent industry group performance. Some of the groups that have seen the biggest gains in market cap over the same time frame include Capital Goods, Tech Hardware, Energy, and Pharma/Biotech. Below is a look at the average stock's percentage change since 1/28 by industry group. Software and Real Estate Management & Development stocks have easily seen the biggest drops at -20%+. Nine groups have averaged gains of more than 5%, however. The average Russell 1000 stock is currently about 19% below its 52-week high. Four groups are at -30%: Software, Real Estate Management & Development, Commercial & Professional Services, and Media & Entertainment. On the flip side, the average Utilities stock is less than 5% from its 52-week high. If you're interested, below is a look at the twenty largest stocks in the Russell 1000, along with each one's current distance from its 52-week high. Of the $1+ trillion companies, Microsoft ( MSFT ) is in the bigg...
Most enterprise software companies experienced a sharp decline in value during the early stages of 2026, as investors worry that artificial intelligence (AI) will eat their lunch. There is a concern that tools like Anthropic's Claude Code will enable businesses to rapidly build their own software tools, reducing their reliance on external vendors. Plus, as AI makes every business more productive, ...
Most enterprise software companies experienced a sharp decline in value during the early stages of 2026, as investors worry that artificial intelligence (AI) will eat their lunch. There is a concern that tools like Anthropic's Claude Code will enable businesses to rapidly build their own software tools, reducing their reliance on external vendors. Plus, as AI makes every business more productive, they will have fewer employees and will therefore purchase fewer software licenses. Workiva (NYSE: WK) stock is down 25% this year already, but I'm not so sure the decline is warranted. Its flagship platform helps organizations aggregate their data to create one trusted source, which managers use to draft executive reports and even regulatory filings. I think it will be a long time before managers trust AI with such a critical workflow -- after all, sending an error-riddled report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, for example, could have dire consequences. Wall Street appears to agree with that sentiment, because the majority of the analysts tracked by The Wall Street Journal gave Workiva stock a buy rating, and not a single analyst recommends selling. Their consensus price target implies a potential upside of 45% over the next 12 months or so, and here's why I agree. Continue reading
A few weeks ago, analysts at UBS Group AG laid out a worst-case scenario for defaults in the private credit sector. Their outlook is even more grim now. Strategists including Matthew Mish now say private credit could see default rates surge as high as 15%, two percentage points more than a forecast the firm published less than a month ago. The initial report had warned that direct lenders could fa...
A few weeks ago, analysts at UBS Group AG laid out a worst-case scenario for defaults in the private credit sector. Their outlook is even more grim now. Strategists including Matthew Mish now say private credit could see default rates surge as high as 15%, two percentage points more than a forecast the firm published less than a month ago. The initial report had warned that direct lenders could face a 13% default rate if artificial intelligence triggers an “aggressive” disruption among corporate borrowers, but that view became even more bearish in recent weeks as fears about AI upending the US economy deepened. Read More: IBM Sinks Most Since 2000 as Anthropic Touts Cobol Tool “What is new: a clearer catalyst — rapid, severe AI disruption,” said the report published on Tuesday. Fears of such an event have been building in recent days. Stocks slid to start the week after a report from Citrini Research spooked investors with a scenario where AI advancements led to a double-digit US unemployment rate by 2028. And just days prior, Blue Owl Capital Inc. blocked investors from making withdrawals from one of its private credit funds, raising anxiety about the loans issued by direct lenders, especially to software firms. “The most acute risk is a sector-specific shock triggering cascading defaults,” the UBS strategists wrote. “Technology is especially vulnerable to disruption from AI adoption or rapid retrenchment.” They added: “Private credit defaults are reportedly between 3% and 5%, and signs of strain —such as interest paid-in-kind — are nearing post-pandemic highs.” Read More: ‘Bad PIK’ Is Climbing Again as Private Lenders Scrutinize Books The strategists also see higher default risk for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, where they project rates of up to 6% and 10% in a worst-case scenario. That’s up from estimates of up to 4% and 8% in the previous report.