IURII KRASILNIKOV/iStock via Getty Images Fixed Income Market Review The fourth quarter of 2025 maintained the trend of significant shifts in macroeconomic, geopolitical, fundamental, and supply-demand dynamics seen in the third quarter. Markets continued to rebound from post-“Liberation Day” lows as legal challenges, implementation delays, and immediate economic impacts remained muted. While tari...
IURII KRASILNIKOV/iStock via Getty Images Fixed Income Market Review The fourth quarter of 2025 maintained the trend of significant shifts in macroeconomic, geopolitical, fundamental, and supply-demand dynamics seen in the third quarter. Markets continued to rebound from post-“Liberation Day” lows as legal challenges, implementation delays, and immediate economic impacts remained muted. While tariffs and other policy outcomes are still pending, we should see some resolution from the Supreme Court in the coming months. However, financial markets remained confident in a solid economy, rangebound inflation, and early signs of easing geopolitical risks. U.S. economic data continued to signal resilience despite a U.S. government shutdown that delayed or cancelled key releases. Once resolved, the post-shutdown data confirmed that certain trends remained intact: positive growth, contained inflation, and unemployment that held near historically low levels despite some downside surprises. This allowed the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume easing, cutting rates by 25 basis points ('bps') at both the October and December Federal Open Market Committee ('FOMC') meetings. The Fed has acknowledged that while elements of its mandate are in conflict, it has chosen to focus on protecting the labor market in the near term. Global monetary policy remains desynchronized, with divergences among the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. Geopolitical developments were mixed: volatility re-emerged in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, while the Middle East saw some signs of progress. China's military exercises late in the quarter around Taiwan were a reminder that tensions remain unresolved. The ongoing market rebound drove broadly positive financial performance for 4Q. Fixed income sectors posted gains as front-end interest rates declined, and most spread sectors outperformed U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. Treasury curve steepened, with the 2-year yield down by 13 bps, the 5-year y...
(RTTNews) - The Hong Kong stock market has moved higher in two of three trading days since ending the two-day slide in which it had fallen almost 700 points or 2.7 percent. The Hang Seng Index now sits just above the 27,080-point plateau although it may hand back those gains on T
(RTTNews) - The Hong Kong stock market has moved higher in two of three trading days since ending the two-day slide in which it had fallen almost 700 points or 2.7 percent. The Hang Seng Index now sits just above the 27,080-point plateau although it may hand back those gains on T
FOTOKITA/iStock via Getty Images Introduction The last time I covered Newmont Corporation ( NEM ), I upgraded them to a Strong Buy, highlighting their robust fundamentals, portfolio improvements, and macro tailwinds that supported even higher gold prices. With the stock now up about 44% since then and gold up ~27%, I believe NEM warrants a Buy rating (downgrading from Strong Buy), with their new C...
FOTOKITA/iStock via Getty Images Introduction The last time I covered Newmont Corporation ( NEM ), I upgraded them to a Strong Buy, highlighting their robust fundamentals, portfolio improvements, and macro tailwinds that supported even higher gold prices. With the stock now up about 44% since then and gold up ~27%, I believe NEM warrants a Buy rating (downgrading from Strong Buy), with their new CEO taking decisive action that could improve their organic growth in the long run despite a slower 2026, while the current valuation still offers a good margin of safety given the current price of gold. Internal Developments Newmont Corporation IR Newmont's Q4 and 2025 as a whole were amazing - as we could expect given this environment - with excellent numbers, repaying $3.4 billion worth of debt and continuing their asset sales, delivering an all-time Q4 and FY free cash flow record. Newmont Corporation IR As for the guidance, Newmont sees about 5.3 million ounces of production in 2026, Ahafo South, Peñasquito, Boddington, and Cadia, alongside a ~60,000 ounces impact from the bushfires at Boddington, with an AISC of $1,680/oz and ~$3.35 billion in CAPEX, $1.40 billion of which is for development capital. Note, however, that this is a big drop compared to the 5.7 million ounces reported in 2025 for their core portfolio, with their new CEO mentioning the following during their Q4 Earnings Call : 2026 represents a trough in our production cycle due to planned mine sequencing across several operations as we position the portfolio to return to production growth in 2027 and beyond, maintaining our longer-term outlook of approximately 6 million ounces of gold and 150,000 tonnes of copper annually. Note that, as we can see from Newmont's $3,498 average realized gold prices recorded in 2025, their no-hedging policy and few streams inherited from the previous acquisitions allow them to enjoy the full spot price, which can be great in this environment. Newmont Corporation IR Financia...
The tariff tango continues: It boosted markets on Friday when the Supreme Court ruled the duties were illegal, and helped sink markets Monday when President Donald Trump forged ahead with 15% global tariffs. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.1%. Stocks are trading lower in response to the fact that “this adds a new layer of uncertainty to the tariff story,” as Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer...
The tariff tango continues: It boosted markets on Friday when the Supreme Court ruled the duties were illegal, and helped sink markets Monday when President Donald Trump forged ahead with 15% global tariffs. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.1%. Stocks are trading lower in response to the fact that “this adds a new layer of uncertainty to the tariff story,” as Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, puts it.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) building in Beijing, China, on Tuesday, April 18, 2023. Bloomberg | Getty Images China's central bank kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged Tuesday as authorities navigate a balancing act of supporting a slowing economy while maintaining currency stability. The People's Bank of China held its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates at 3% and 3.5%, respectively, ke...
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) building in Beijing, China, on Tuesday, April 18, 2023. Bloomberg | Getty Images China's central bank kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged Tuesday as authorities navigate a balancing act of supporting a slowing economy while maintaining currency stability. The People's Bank of China held its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates at 3% and 3.5%, respectively, keeping them steady for a tenth straight month despite stuttering economic growth. The 1-year rate serves as the benchmark for most new and outstanding loans, while the 5-year level influences mortgages. The world's second-largest economy showed signs of slowing down in the final quarter of last year, expanding 4.5% year on year , its slowest pace since the country lifted its stringent Covid curbs in late 2022. Chinese authorities have struggled to lift the economy out of an entrenched deflation as consumers cut back spending amid a prolonged real estate downturn, a bleak job market and uncertain income prospects. Retail sales growth fell to a 3-year low of 0.9% in December while the GDP deflator — a metric that shows changes in prices of goods and services — has stayed negative for 11 consecutive quarters . Policymakers have turned to promoting the consumption of services to boost overall spending, betting that elderly care services, leisure and tourism can help make up for the tepid demand in goods. The Chinese yuan has continued to appreciate in recent months, with the offshore yuan strengthening from around 6.974 per U.S. dollar at the start of the year to 6.889 Tuesday morning, according to LSEG data. The PBOC in recent weeks has signaled some tolerance for a gradual strengthening in its currency, with the dollar's weakness paving the way for the yuan to extend its advance. The central bank manages the yuan by keeping it within a band that is 2% on either side of a midpoint that it fixes each trading day. The officials have moved its so-called fixing level lower, dipping...