Ployker/iStock via Getty Images With the current Middle East conflict entering its second month, it seems more likely this conflict is going to go on for a while, at least several months if not much longer. While the world is focused on oil prices and the umpteenth time some sort of negotiations are mentioned and then dispelled and then refloated, it may be an opportune time to take a look at some...
Ployker/iStock via Getty Images With the current Middle East conflict entering its second month, it seems more likely this conflict is going to go on for a while, at least several months if not much longer. While the world is focused on oil prices and the umpteenth time some sort of negotiations are mentioned and then dispelled and then refloated, it may be an opportune time to take a look at some less obvious beneficiaries of the current crisis. Helium is mentioned as an item potentially in shortage due to the Hormuz Strait blockade, and I believe that though Intel ( INTC ) stock price has been flat in the past few months, it is set to become a big beneficiary. INTC stock price ( StockCharts.com ) Helium: The Big Shortage While helium may seem innocuous when used to inflate balloons at parties, it is actually a critical industrial material for high-end medical and technological applications, including the fabrication of semiconductor chips . The current Middle East conflict knocked out a facility in the Middle East capable of producing helium, removing a third of the global supply and sending semiconductor fabs (among other companies) in a rush for helium. Helium spot prices have reportedly doubled already. But if we look a bit further, INTC is actually set to benefit from this. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) below, the US is the world’s largest producer of helium ((68+13)/180=43% of world production in 2024). World helium production (USGS) According to the same source, the US extracts its helium from natural gas production and produces more than it consumes, i.e., the US is fully self-sufficient in helium. US helium production consumption (USGS) Why INTC is Set to Benefit From Helium Crisis 70-75% of the world’s semiconductor chips are produced in East Asia, and these are all reliant on imports of helium; for example, South Korea imports 65% of its helium from Qatar, and Taiwan relies on Qatar for the majority of its helium as well. But IN...
_ultraforma_/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Introduction Despite posting a small loss so far in 2026, shares in Citigroup ( C ) have outperformed the broader iShares US Financials ETF ( IYF ), benefiting from the bank's undemanding valuation relative to large peers such as JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ). I see Citigroup as attractively valued ahead of Q1 2026 earnings and the upcoming 2026 Investor Da...
_ultraforma_/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Introduction Despite posting a small loss so far in 2026, shares in Citigroup ( C ) have outperformed the broader iShares US Financials ETF ( IYF ), benefiting from the bank's undemanding valuation relative to large peers such as JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ). I see Citigroup as attractively valued ahead of Q1 2026 earnings and the upcoming 2026 Investor Day on May 7, ranking it with a Buy rating. The bullish thesis can be summarized as: Citigroup trades at an attractive 11.3x 2026 earnings multiple, a circa 17% discount to large peers such as JPM. At the same time, Citigroup's earnings growth post 2026 is likely to beat peers, largely driven by a low starting base in terms of return on equity. Citigroup's provisioning is in line with the Fed's 2026 outlook and recent U.S. economic data, potentially pointing to no sizable provision building over the near term, notwithstanding risks from international market exposure. Q1 2026 Earnings Preview Citigroup is due to report earnings on April 14, with analysts expecting EPS of $2.61/share . This would represent a notable ~33% Y/Y increase relative to the $1.96/share achieved in the prior year quarter. I calculate that roughly 7% of the EPS growth should come from a lower share count, benefiting from share repurchases executed in 2025. A smaller loss in the All Other (managed basis) segment should also help, with Citigroup making progress on overseas divestitures in 2025. Provisioning related to the United States exposure should remain contained, as Citigroup's allowance for credit losses reflected a Q1 2026 unemployment rate of 4.5% , versus a 4.3% unemployment rate in the March 2026 employment report . Hence, the absence of the $210 million provision build observed in Q1 2025 could boost EPS by about $0.12/share, accounting for roughly 6% of the EPS increase. As with most banks, Citigroup's annual report does not provide a detailed exposure overview of the Middle East (as the regio...
AlexSecret Stock futures inched higher Monday premarket while oil retreated after reports that the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire to end the war. Here are some of Monday's biggest stock movers: Biggest stock gainers Soleno Therapeutics ( SLNO ) +26% – Shares surged after a report that Neurocrine Biosciences ( NBIX ) is in advanced talks to ...
AlexSecret Stock futures inched higher Monday premarket while oil retreated after reports that the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire to end the war. Here are some of Monday's biggest stock movers: Biggest stock gainers Soleno Therapeutics ( SLNO ) +26% – Shares surged after a report that Neurocrine Biosciences ( NBIX ) is in advanced talks to acquire the company in a deal that could value it in the low-to-mid $50s per share, or over $2.5B. The potential acquisition, reported by the Financial Times, could be finalized soon. The deal would mark Neurocrine’s first major transaction and add Soleno’s treatment for Prader-Willi syndrome, which analysts estimate could generate peak annual sales of up to $2.3B. Twilio ( TWLO ) +3% – Shares gained after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold, citing stronger conviction in its role within the voice AI ecosystem. Analyst Samad Samana highlighted that increasing relevance in an agentic AI landscape, combined with improving fundamentals, could drive multiple expansion. The firm set a $160 price target, implying roughly 22% upside from current levels. Netflix ( NFLX ) +2% – Shares rose after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $120, citing improved risk/reward following recent underperformance. The firm sees a return to a “standalone execution story” after Netflix abandoned its pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery assets, unlocking focus on core growth drivers. Analysts highlighted sustained double-digit revenue growth driven by subscriber gains, pricing power, and a rapidly scaling ad business, alongside margin expansion and strong free cash flow generation. Potential for renewed share buybacks was also flagged as a key EPS tailwind. More on related stocks: Netflix: Three Reasons To Expect An Earnings Beat Netflix: Still A Good Showing But Be Ready To Bail When The Economy Contracts Netflix Q1 Preview: The Generational Buyi...
Cricket updates from 11am BST across the grounds Team-by-team guide | Email Tanya or comment BTL News from Yorkshire: Joe Root will play in the Championship games against Sussex, Somerset and Surrey; and Brook will play two games in May, against Warwickshire and Surrey. Leicestershire are learning the hard wa y. This was Stevie Eskinazi last night: Continue reading...
Cricket updates from 11am BST across the grounds Team-by-team guide | Email Tanya or comment BTL News from Yorkshire: Joe Root will play in the Championship games against Sussex, Somerset and Surrey; and Brook will play two games in May, against Warwickshire and Surrey. Leicestershire are learning the hard wa y. This was Stevie Eskinazi last night: Continue reading...
tunart/iStock via Getty Images Brookfield Asset Management ( BAM ) just hiked its dividend by 15% and is paying out a near-record forward dividend yield on stock price weakness catalyzed by the emerging SaaSpocalypse bear theory, fears around a private credit meltdown, and "credit cockroaches" that have all aggregated to crush BAM's multiple to fee-related earnings ("FRE"). The alternative asset m...
tunart/iStock via Getty Images Brookfield Asset Management ( BAM ) just hiked its dividend by 15% and is paying out a near-record forward dividend yield on stock price weakness catalyzed by the emerging SaaSpocalypse bear theory, fears around a private credit meltdown, and "credit cockroaches" that have all aggregated to crush BAM's multiple to fee-related earnings ("FRE"). The alternative asset manager closed out 2025 with record numbers, declaring a quarterly cash dividend of $0.5025 per share , a 15% hike versus its prior distribution, and $2.01 per share annualized for a 4.52% dividend yield. BAM's 4-year average dividend yield stands at 2.67% , with the ongoing yield offering 185 basis points in excess of this average. I have a position in BAM, with the simple long-term thesis of this centered around continued assets under management ("AUM") and fee-bearing capital growth that will allow BAM to grow fee-related earnings ("FRE") year-over-year and maintain positive cadence with dividend hikes. The asset manager has raised its quarterly dividend from $0.32 per share in 2023 for a 3-year compound annual growth rate of around 16%. BAM's yield is now at the highest it's ever been since it went public on the NYSE. Data by YCharts The most important metric is capital formation. That's the ability of the company to tap its buyer pools to raise fee-bearing capital and swell AUM. BAM saw AUM reach $1.2 trillion as of the end of its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter, with its bearing capital coming in at $603 billion . This was on the back of a record quarter for capital formation, with $35 billion raised in the quarter to bring the full year 2025 capital formation figure to $112 billion. Fee-bearing capital was up 12% over its year-ago comp. Critically, the bulk of funds raised during the quarter was on the back of BAM's credit vertical, which brought in $23 billion, with $7 billion raised from its infrastructure business. The fourth quarter formed the second consecutive period...
peshkov/iStock via Getty Images The Post-COVID Volatility When one thinks back on all that has happened since 2020, it is, I think, amazing how little the US economy has changed over that time. Obviously, the economy was volatile during the shutdown of the economy during COVID and during the period when the economy was reopening. Real GDP fell over 7% in the second quarter of 2020, rebounded with ...
peshkov/iStock via Getty Images The Post-COVID Volatility When one thinks back on all that has happened since 2020, it is, I think, amazing how little the US economy has changed over that time. Obviously, the economy was volatile during the shutdown of the economy during COVID and during the period when the economy was reopening. Real GDP fell over 7% in the second quarter of 2020, rebounded with growth peaking at 12.4% in Q2 2021, but by a year later, yoy growth was back down to the pre-COVID trend of 2.4%. It overshot a little to the downside in the second half, but the full year 2022 change was 1.9%. Inflation, however, was not as well-behaved. In fact, it was so stubborn that the word “transitory” has now been struck from the Fed commentary style guide, never to be uttered by a Fed chairman again. When real growth got back down to trend by mid-2022, nominal GDP was still rising at over 10% and was above 8% at the end of that year. Even now, the year-over-year change in NGDP is higher than it was for all but 3 quarters of the decade prior to COVID. This GDP volatility was matched by interest rate volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield ( US10Y ) falling to a low of 0.5% during the shutdown, rising to a high of 4.3% in 2022, falling to 3.25% in early 2023, and then rising all the way to 5% by October. From there, rates fell back to 3.6% by the late summer of ’24 and back to 4.8% by the end of the year. But as you can see below, the range is narrowing. The uncertainty about inflation and the Fed’s rate-hiking campaign, that started in the spring of 2022, drove stock market volatility as well. No one knew how high the Fed would have to hike rates to tame inflation, but the fear was that it would be so rapid and so large that the tightening of credit would push the economy into recession. Stocks hit their nadir in October ’24 – down 24% – and closed the year down 18%. Stocks started to recover in 2023 but were held in check by still-rising rates, and by the time ...
Nuclear, pharma, and travel giants just made significant buyback announcements. However, not all of these are as confidence-inspiring as they may seem.
Nuclear, pharma, and travel giants just made significant buyback announcements. However, not all of these are as confidence-inspiring as they may seem.