Dmitry Vinogradov Evercore said its AI channel checks related to Networking and Optics are positive for Nvidia ( NVDA ), Broadcom ( AVGO ), Astera Labs ( ALAB ), Marvell Technology ( MRVL ), and Macom Technology Solutions ( MTSI ). "Our checks with 20 AI-Engineers confirm our view that connectivity remains a key bottleneck in AIsystems (both supply and speed), and that companies that deliver solut...
Dmitry Vinogradov Evercore said its AI channel checks related to Networking and Optics are positive for Nvidia ( NVDA ), Broadcom ( AVGO ), Astera Labs ( ALAB ), Marvell Technology ( MRVL ), and Macom Technology Solutions ( MTSI ). "Our checks with 20 AI-Engineers confirm our view that connectivity remains a key bottleneck in AIsystems (both supply and speed), and that companies that deliver solutions at scale will enjoy tailwinds to revenues and margins. Every hyperscaler has a different strategy and supply chain – we think the checks are positive for NVDA, AVGO, ALAB, MRVL and MTSI, and we reiterate our OP [Outperform] ratings on each," said analysts led by Mark Lipacis. Nvidia ( NVDA ) The analysts said Nvidia appears to be working towards having a Co-packaged Optics, or CPO, scale-up version of the NVLink switch in alignment with the Rubin Ultra release in the second half of 2027, although some believe it will more likely happen in 2028. The analysts noted that they believe Peripheral Component Interconnect Express, or PCIe, and Ethernet have a chance to take share from NVLink, but NVLink will be viewed as having superior performance. The analysts added that Nvidia developed its own Digital Signal Processors, or DSPs, at 1.6T (terabits per second) and is expected to serve 50% of its internal demand with them and the remaining from Broadcom ( AVGO ). Broadcom ( AVGO ) Lipacis and his team said that Broadcom's Electro-Absorption Modulated Lasers, or EML, capacity is increasing from 43M to 44M in 2025 to 50M in 2026, and the Continuous Wave, or CW, laser is expanding from 15M to 16M in 2025 to 30M in 2026. The analysts added that non-Broadcom switches struggle to support Linear-drive Pluggable Optics, or LPO modules. The analysts noted that the company's 1.6T DSPs are considered best-in-class, and a majority of Meta Platforms' ( META ) 1.6T DSP demand is expected to go to Broadcom. Astera Labs ( ALAB ) Amazon's ( AMZN ) Trainium-3 is expected to include ALAB’s Scor...
Dmitry Vinogradov Evercore said its AI channel checks related to Networking and Optics are positive for Nvidia ( NVDA ), Broadcom ( AVGO ), Astera Labs ( ALAB ), Marvell Technology ( MRVL ), and Macom Technology Solutions ( MTSI ). "Our checks with 20 AI-Engineers confirm our view that connectivity remains a key bottleneck in AIsystems (both supply and speed), and that companies that deliver solut...
Dmitry Vinogradov Evercore said its AI channel checks related to Networking and Optics are positive for Nvidia ( NVDA ), Broadcom ( AVGO ), Astera Labs ( ALAB ), Marvell Technology ( MRVL ), and Macom Technology Solutions ( MTSI ). "Our checks with 20 AI-Engineers confirm our view that connectivity remains a key bottleneck in AIsystems (both supply and speed), and that companies that deliver solutions at scale will enjoy tailwinds to revenues and margins. Every hyperscaler has a different strategy and supply chain – we think the checks are positive for NVDA, AVGO, ALAB, MRVL and MTSI, and we reiterate our OP [Outperform] ratings on each," said analysts led by Mark Lipacis. Nvidia ( NVDA ) The analysts said Nvidia appears to be working towards having a Co-packaged Optics, or CPO, scale-up version of the NVLink switch in alignment with the Rubin Ultra release in the second half of 2027, although some believe it will more likely happen in 2028. The analysts noted that they believe Peripheral Component Interconnect Express, or PCIe, and Ethernet have a chance to take share from NVLink, but NVLink will be viewed as having superior performance. The analysts added that Nvidia developed its own Digital Signal Processors, or DSPs, at 1.6T (terabits per second) and is expected to serve 50% of its internal demand with them and the remaining from Broadcom ( AVGO ). Broadcom ( AVGO ) Lipacis and his team said that Broadcom's Electro-Absorption Modulated Lasers, or EML, capacity is increasing from 43M to 44M in 2025 to 50M in 2026, and the Continuous Wave, or CW, laser is expanding from 15M to 16M in 2025 to 30M in 2026. The analysts added that non-Broadcom switches struggle to support Linear-drive Pluggable Optics, or LPO modules. The analysts noted that the company's 1.6T DSPs are considered best-in-class, and a majority of Meta Platforms' ( META ) 1.6T DSP demand is expected to go to Broadcom. Astera Labs ( ALAB ) Amazon's ( AMZN ) Trainium-3 is expected to include ALAB’s Scor...
Lightboxx/iStock via Getty Images On the morning of Friday, February 20, the Supreme Court issued a 55,000-word opinion on President Trump’s tariffs. Citing a backdrop of clear and limited delegations under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”), the court invalidated the imposed tariffs. Seeking Alpha readers reacted to the 6-3 decision to strike down the tariffs: the news aler...
Lightboxx/iStock via Getty Images On the morning of Friday, February 20, the Supreme Court issued a 55,000-word opinion on President Trump’s tariffs. Citing a backdrop of clear and limited delegations under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”), the court invalidated the imposed tariffs. Seeking Alpha readers reacted to the 6-3 decision to strike down the tariffs: the news alert generated over 1,050 comments . After the court decision, stock markets did not react as if the government would halt all tariffs. The Dow Jones ( DJI ) rose by 0.47%, the Nasdaq ( QQQ ) added 0.9%, and the S&P 500 ( SPY ) ( SP500 ) ( IVV ) gained 0.69%. Stock markets priced in Trump introducing a new 10% global tariff . Hours later, the President increased the newly announced 10% tariff to 15% . What are 1/ the implications of the court ruling, along with the new tariffs announced afterward? 2/ What happens to the U.S. dollar, U.S. debt yields, and metal prices? Most importantly, 3/ how does the court decision reshape U.S. trade negotiations with the rest of the world? 1/ Implications of Court Ruling The Supreme Court invalidated the President’s use of the IEEPA to impose tariffs. It said on page four that “Absent from this lengthy list of specific powers is any mention of tariffs or duties. Had Congress intended to convey the distinct and extraordinary power to impose tariffs, it would have done so expressly, as it consistently has in other tariff statutes.” Issuing tariffs on the claims of national security bears “little on the meaning of IEEPA.” The court said that the IEEPA did not authorize the President to “impose tariffs to deal with the declared drug trafficking and trade deficit emergencies.” Instead, the court said that the authorization requires “clear congressional authorization.” Investors should expect greater debate and decision-making from Congress. This elongates the discussion of tools like tariffs to solve the U.S.’s steep trade deficit. That should be...
Meta’s rumored smartwatch launch adds a fresh hardware catalyst to an already profitable AI-driven advertising machine, but valuation and execution risks still matter.
Meta’s rumored smartwatch launch adds a fresh hardware catalyst to an already profitable AI-driven advertising machine, but valuation and execution risks still matter.
Enablers Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance There’s an obvious growing failure at the center of modern markets that, as a former short seller, has become beyond obvious to me over the years. It isn’t just fraud or aggressive accounting. It’s the ecosystem that allows both to thrive: financial media that won’t press, and a sell side that won’t risk upsetting management teams they depend on for acces...
Enablers Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance There’s an obvious growing failure at the center of modern markets that, as a former short seller, has become beyond obvious to me over the years. It isn’t just fraud or aggressive accounting. It’s the ecosystem that allows both to thrive: financial media that won’t press, and a sell side that won’t risk upsetting management teams they depend on for access. We’ve seen this movie before. Enron did not implode because there were no warning signs. It imploded because the warning signs were inconvenient. There were whistleblowers. There were people inside the system who knew the numbers didn’t add up. But complexity was treated as brilliance, and skepticism was treated as cynicism. Analysts admired the innovation. Television hosts admired the executives. And the stock went up—until it didn’t. The same institutional shrug preceded the collapse of Bernard Madoff. And one line is enough about Harry Markopolos: he handed regulators a mathematical proof Madoff’s returns were impossible, and they filed it away until the financial crisis caused Madoff to collapse. The common thread wasn’t ignorance. It was incuriosity. Or, more precisely, selective incuriosity. Now consider Carvana. For years, short sellers have argued that Carvana’s reported outperformance relative to peers strains economic logic. Short seller reports have laid out, in detail, why investors should be extremely cautious with the subprime used car dealer whose numbers blow away its competitors somehow. All you have to do is take an hour and read the damn reports — something apparently no one on the street is capable or doing, or cares to do. Used car retailing is not software. It is capital intensive, cyclical, and brutally competitive. Yet the narrative presented has often been one of operational genius and dramatic margin recovery. Skeptics have focused on the company’s web of related-party entities tied to the founding family, including DriveTime, Bridgecrest, and G...
Authorities mounted rescue operation after group of five lost control of ice sheet in Stockholm archipelago Five people have been rescued from an ice floe carrying a sauna tent, a motorised saw and an onboard motor after they lost control of their DIY vessel in the Stockholm archipelago. Swedish authorities believe the ice sheet’s passengers, who were German tourists, had been attempting to create...
Authorities mounted rescue operation after group of five lost control of ice sheet in Stockholm archipelago Five people have been rescued from an ice floe carrying a sauna tent, a motorised saw and an onboard motor after they lost control of their DIY vessel in the Stockholm archipelago. Swedish authorities believe the ice sheet’s passengers, who were German tourists, had been attempting to create their own motor-powered floating sauna when the swell from a passing passenger ferry broke the ice sheet and stranded them near Värmdö, an island near Stockholm. Continue reading...
Tweedy, Browne Mutual Funds said that Insider + Value ETF (COPY) and International Insider + Value ETF (ICPY) made financial progress on both an absolute and relative basis, besting their respective benchmarks for the quarter and one year. COPY returned 5.82% during the fourth quarter, outperforming the MSCI World Index, which gained 3.12%. For calendar year 2025, COPY returned 30.00% versus 21.09...
Tweedy, Browne Mutual Funds said that Insider + Value ETF (COPY) and International Insider + Value ETF (ICPY) made financial progress on both an absolute and relative basis, besting their respective benchmarks for the quarter and one year. COPY returned 5.82% during the fourth quarter, outperforming the MSCI World Index, which gained 3.12%. For calendar year 2025, COPY returned 30.00% versus 21.09% for its benchmark. Additionally, ICPY, despite launching in the latter part of the year, produced a 7.61% return in the fourth quarter, compared with a 4.86% return for the MSCI EAFE Index (in USD) (the "EAFE Index"). From its inception on September 9, 2025, through year-end, ICPY returned 8.51%, exceeding its benchmark's 6.07% return over the same period. Tweedy, Browne Mutual Funds initiated positions in B&M European Value Retail ( BMRPF ), Domino's Pizza Group ( DPUKY ), First Resources ( FTROF ), and Sodexo ( SDXOF ), driven by a combination of valuation and following the purchasing behavior of informed C-suite executives. On the sales side, the funds eliminated or reduced several holdings across both ETFs, including Bank of Montreal ( BMO ), Eurazeo ( EUZOF ), Persimmon ( PSMMF ), ProSiebenSat.1 ( PBSFF ), and Wendel ( WNDLF ) due to valuation considerations, tax loss harvesting, and the availability of more attractive opportunities elsewhere. Source: Q4 fund letter More on Stepan Company 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation VFLO And The Productivity Issue Of Hyperscalers' CapEx InnovAge: The Headwinds Are Priced In, The Growth May Not Be Stock market slips amid renewed tariff-related uncertainty HP Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: Investors weigh leadership change, PC demand trends
HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Microsoft ( MSFT ) stands out as the only hyperscaler of the Magnificent Seven who is expected to increase their free cash flow in 2026 amid the artificial intelligence infrastructure spending splurge, according to Evercore ISI. Evercore points out that Amazon ( AMZN ), Google ( GOOG )( GOOGL ), and Meta Platforms ( META ) are all expected to demonstrate a ye...
HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Microsoft ( MSFT ) stands out as the only hyperscaler of the Magnificent Seven who is expected to increase their free cash flow in 2026 amid the artificial intelligence infrastructure spending splurge, according to Evercore ISI. Evercore points out that Amazon ( AMZN ), Google ( GOOG )( GOOGL ), and Meta Platforms ( META ) are all expected to demonstrate a year-over-year decline in free cash flow in 2026. Oracle ( ORCL ), another large-scale cloud provider outside the Mag 7, is also expected to experience a decline. However, Microsoft is expected to increase its free cash flow by 5%, while Nvidia ( NVDA ) and Apple ( AAPL ) are estimated to have double-digit growth. "The question remains around how long hyperscalers can sustain this scale of investments, especially as FCF dips below zero in some cases," said Evercore analysts, led by Amit Daryanani, in an investor note. "Looking at forward FCF multiples, AAPL remains attractive in the group trading below 30x CY26 and CY27 FCF, while the average Mag 7 FCF multiples currently stand at >95x." Hyperscaler capex among the biggest names in the industry is expected to grow by 58% in 2026 to more than $700B. "In the last three years, aggregate Mag 7 + ORCL capex was ~40% or less of aggregate cash flow from operations, though in CY25, capex moved up to ~50% and is expected to be ~60%+ in both CY26 and CY27," Daryanani noted. "While AI-driven demand provides a compelling LT investment rationale, the NT consequence is weaker FCF, constrained capital return and heightened sensitivity to financing conditions. And if debt becomes a more meaningful funding source for infrastructure expansion, we expect investor focus to shift towards less capital intense assets with a greater focus on ROIC and capital allocation." More on Microsoft Microsoft: Why I Set A $370 Buy Order Microsoft's Plunge Is A Gift Microsoft: This AI Selloff Could Be The Buying Opportunity Investors Miss Burry sparks AI spendi...
Call comes amid fresh scrutiny of Mountbatten-Windsor’s alleged links to Epstein, including claims over security arrangements at his New York home The intense focus on the former Prince Andrew’s association with the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein has centred on the women who were trafficked for sex as young girls by the latter, and the police investigation into claims Mountbatten-Windsor h...
Call comes amid fresh scrutiny of Mountbatten-Windsor’s alleged links to Epstein, including claims over security arrangements at his New York home The intense focus on the former Prince Andrew’s association with the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein has centred on the women who were trafficked for sex as young girls by the latter, and the police investigation into claims Mountbatten-Windsor handed him sensitive information while serving as the UK trade envoy. Over the weekend, it shifted slightly to the police officers who were tasked with guarding Andrew for years as he carried out his public role as a senior royal. They are now being told to come forward and speak to detectives about what they saw and heard while on duty. Continue reading...
Sarah Silbiger Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he doesn't exactly know "how to think" about monetary policy in an economy that's growing but isn't creating jobs. On the positive side, the January jobs report showed an economy that created the same amount of jobs as in the previous nine months combined. But he warns not to get too excited by one strong month. "One month of good new...
Sarah Silbiger Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he doesn't exactly know "how to think" about monetary policy in an economy that's growing but isn't creating jobs. On the positive side, the January jobs report showed an economy that created the same amount of jobs as in the previous nine months combined. But he warns not to get too excited by one strong month. "One month of good news does not constitute a trend, but a year does. And the year 2025 was an extraordinarily weak one for job creation, the weakest outside of a recession since 2002," he said in opening remarks. His viewpoint for monetary policy could shift toward a pause in rate cuts if economic data indicate an improving labor market and inflation moving toward the Fed's 2% target. However, if new labor data points to continued weakness, like it did last year, "there may be an equally credible case for a further reduction in the policy rate," he added. Economic activity has been growing at a "solid pace," he said. Real GDP growth in Q4 was 1.4% on an annual rate, but purchases by consumers and businesses, also called private domestic final purchases, increased by 2.4%, noted. The government shutdown likely hurt GDP growth by about one percentage point in Q4 and will likely boost it by the same amount in Q1, he estimated. Smoothing that effect, he expects GDP growth above 2% for the six months. The effect of the Supreme Court ruling against the IEEPA tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed last year could have a positive effect on consumer and business demand, but the amount and its duration are unclear. Furthermore, the administration intends to replace the IEEPA tariffs through other laws. "There is considerable uncertainty over to what extent tariffs will continue," Waller said. Overall, the U.S. could be in a difficult situation for determining monetary policy, he noted. "This would be the first time in my career, my life, that I saw an economy growing like this and zero job growth," ...
Guildhall & St Mary’s Bathwick, Bath The festival’s new artistic director Adrian Brendel presided over – and was a key part of – a day of virtuosic and adventurous performances Taking up the mantle of the late Amelia Freedman as artistic director of Bath Bachfest is no small task for Adrian Brendel, but his determination to breathe new life into the two-day festival is apparent, not least in estab...
Guildhall & St Mary’s Bathwick, Bath The festival’s new artistic director Adrian Brendel presided over – and was a key part of – a day of virtuosic and adventurous performances Taking up the mantle of the late Amelia Freedman as artistic director of Bath Bachfest is no small task for Adrian Brendel, but his determination to breathe new life into the two-day festival is apparent, not least in establishing the BachFest Ensemble that unites highly talented players in the early stages of notable careers. The energy and commitment of the younger players was palpable and, in a concert of music by Handel, Purcell, Bach and Vivaldi, their collaboration with an older cohort – Brendel himself anchoring the ensemble as cellist, together with oboist Nicholas Daniel and the American countertenor Reginald Mobley – there was a very real sense of their joy in performing together and the audience’s in being part of the equation. Continue reading...
Anthropic PBC Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei will meet with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday, according to a senior Pentagon official, as contract talks with the artificial intelligence startup remain deadlocked over the company’s insistence on guardrails for use of its technology. There were no further details on the meeting between Amodei and Hegseth, according to the official,...
Anthropic PBC Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei will meet with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday, according to a senior Pentagon official, as contract talks with the artificial intelligence startup remain deadlocked over the company’s insistence on guardrails for use of its technology. There were no further details on the meeting between Amodei and Hegseth, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The Pentagon had grown concerned that the company did not support its aims after hearing it had questions about how its AI was used during the US raid last month that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro , the official said. In a statement Monday, Anthropic said it was committed to using AI to support national security. “We are having productive conversations, in good faith, with” the Pentagon “on how to continue that work and get these complex issues right,” the company said via a spokesperson. Read More: Anthropic’s Pentagon Talks Snag on AI Surveillance, Weapons Anthropic is also seeking additional protections governing use of its Claude AI tool, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News last week. Those conditions would include measures to stop it from being used for mass surveillance of Americans or to develop weapons that can be deployed without a human involved. The company’s stance has prompted objections from the Pentagon, which wants to be able to use Claude as long as its deployment doesn’t break the law. A Defense Department spokesman said last week the company’s relationship with the Pentagon was under review. “Our nation requires that our partners be willing to help our warfighters win in any fight,” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said. Axios reported earlier Monday on the meeting between Amodei and Hegseth, citing people familiar with the matter, who described it as decisive moment in the discussions over the contract. Anthropic positions itself as a company focused on the responsible use of AI with a...
PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction Focusing largely on tech and AI, I often spin toward constraints and supply shortages that this AI boom creates . We’ve already seen a massive surge in high bandwidth memory, or HBM, demand, and those who have been following me knew about Micron ( MU ) before this stock surged. Even though most of the energy stocks have already repriced, waitin...
PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction Focusing largely on tech and AI, I often spin toward constraints and supply shortages that this AI boom creates . We’ve already seen a massive surge in high bandwidth memory, or HBM, demand, and those who have been following me knew about Micron ( MU ) before this stock surged. Even though most of the energy stocks have already repriced, waiting for the real shortage (or panic as a result of it) to begin, today, I want to break down Bloom Energy Corporation ( BE ). There are a couple of reasons this stock has interested me. The most important fact you need to know about Bloom Energy, is that it does not rely on the grid to provide power solutions, and in a couple of years, it will most likely prove to be the largest catalyst, as the grid will be one of the major constraint points of power supply in the U.S. According to Bloom’s research, 73% of operators are embedding onsite power into long-term strategies, and to me, this estimation sounds reasonable. Just 2 months ago, I broke down Alphabet’s ( GOOG )( GOOGL ) acquisition of Intersect , which is a clean energy company Alphabet had been previously working closely with. This company provides solutions to the data centers using a co-location model, which means that the energy plants are built directly next to data centers, avoiding the grid problem. It did not surprise me to see that Alphabet has already started solving this problem, as its assets that are not yet in service have surged about 55% year over year from $50.6 billion to $78.6 billion. These mostly represent data centers, including GPUs that have been bought but stay offline for now. GOOG 10-K Unfortunately, there isn't much information or research online about how many chips have been bought but not used yet, but it’s not a small number. By some estimates, it takes hyperscalers 6-12 months after the purchase to get those online, partly due to supply chain lags from chip producers like Nvidia ( NVDA ),...