mbbirdy/E+ via Getty Images Macro markets are compressing into tight trading ranges, setting the stage for potential breakouts, according to Paul Ciana, technical strategist at Bank of America Securities. “Macro markets are mostly defined by narrowing trading ranges and volatility compression,” Ciana wrote in a Feb. 20 report, highlighting that the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) and U.S. Treasury yields remain...
mbbirdy/E+ via Getty Images Macro markets are compressing into tight trading ranges, setting the stage for potential breakouts, according to Paul Ciana, technical strategist at Bank of America Securities. “Macro markets are mostly defined by narrowing trading ranges and volatility compression,” Ciana wrote in a Feb. 20 report, highlighting that the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) and U.S. Treasury yields remain rangebound while the U.S. dollar is rebounding from recent cycle lows. Oil, he noted, is the exception: “Brent is up +/-20% from its late-December low.” Equities: Uptrend intact - for now Ciana describes the S&P 500 as undergoing a “correction through time,” with trendline support near 6,750 holding. Market breadth remains supportive, with roughly 68% of stocks above their 200-day moving averages. “Market breadth remains constructive and favors rotation, keeping the door open to a resumption of the uptrend toward 7,168 / 7,206,” he said. However, a decisive break below 6,720 could expose downside risk toward the rising 200-day average near 6,525. For investors, the takeaway is tactical patience: equity leadership rotation continues, but conviction remains capped by range-bound price action. Rates: Breakout risk ahead In fixed income, Ciana sees Treasury yields tightening into “exothermic triangles,” warning that compressed ranges often precede sharp moves. “We expect spring-loaded, impulsive and chasable breakouts within 1-2 months,” he wrote, adding: “We’re secular bears, cyclical bulls, tactical bears.” He flagged 3.93% on the 10-year yield as a key threshold. A move above that level would challenge the cyclical bull case for bonds. In positioning terms, Ciana said the team is “sympathetic to owning TY puts,” a hedge against rising yields. Dollar: Five signals point to rebound After reaching new cycle lows, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is showing signs of stabilization. Ciana outlined five technical indicators suggesting the dollar could stage another rebound. “Five t...
The US dollar traded in a tight range early Monday as uncertainty lingered after President Donald Trump lashed out at the US Supreme Court for striking down his use of emergency powers to impose so-called reciprocal tariffs. Risk currencies such as the Mexican peso edged lower while the euro and Japanese yen inched higher. The Thai baht, which is influenced by movements in gold, fluctuated. Bitcoi...
The US dollar traded in a tight range early Monday as uncertainty lingered after President Donald Trump lashed out at the US Supreme Court for striking down his use of emergency powers to impose so-called reciprocal tariffs. Risk currencies such as the Mexican peso edged lower while the euro and Japanese yen inched higher. The Thai baht, which is influenced by movements in gold, fluctuated. Bitcoin fell 1.4%. Trump said Saturday he would raise a 10% global tariff to 15% to preserve protective trade measures, stoking fresh economic turbulence after the Supreme Court ruling. The friction spilled out Sunday as Europe’s trade chief said he’ll propose halting ratification of a deal struck with the US, while India postponed talks to finalize an interim trade deal. “We’ve got so much experience of Trump now that we don’t think he’ll take this lying down,” said Nick Twidale , chief market analyst at AT Global Markets. “The increased uncertainty and question marks around what Trump will do next outweigh any potential positives from lower tariffs and potential paybacks.” Senior US officials said Trump’s tariff defeat at the Supreme Court won’t unravel deals negotiated with US partners. Those deals — which the administration made with partners including China, the European Union, Japan and South Korea — remain in place, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Sunday on CBS’s Face the Nation . Trump Charts New Path After Top Court Blocks Tariff Hammer US Tells Partners to Honor Tariff Deals as Trump Recalibrates Xi Gains Leverage Before Trump Summit After Tariff Reversal The S&P 500 added 0.7% Friday, notching its best week since Jan. 9, with optimism over the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling offsetting worries over heightened tensions between the US and Iran. An ETF tracking emerging markets hit all-time highs. The dollar slipped 0.2%, trimming its weekly advance to 0.6%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.08% in a volatile session Friday following mix...
Key PointsCo-President Margaret Hayne sold 18,666 shares indirectly for a total transaction value of approximately $1.3 million, with a weighted-average price of approximately $71.87 per share on Feb. 2 and Feb. 3, 2026.
Key PointsCo-President Margaret Hayne sold 18,666 shares indirectly for a total transaction value of approximately $1.3 million, with a weighted-average price of approximately $71.87 per share on Feb. 2 and Feb. 3, 2026.
Arsenal passed the north London derby test with flying colours as Premier League title race looks likely to go to the wire, says chief football writer Phil McNulty
Arsenal passed the north London derby test with flying colours as Premier League title race looks likely to go to the wire, says chief football writer Phil McNulty
One police officer was killed and 24 people were wounded after several explosive devices detonated at midnight in Lviv in western Ukraine, the National Police said on Sunday, in an attack President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed on Russia. “It has been preliminarily established that home-made explosive devices detonated,” the police said on the Telegram messaging service. Lviv’s mayor, writing on Tele...
One police officer was killed and 24 people were wounded after several explosive devices detonated at midnight in Lviv in western Ukraine, the National Police said on Sunday, in an attack President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed on Russia. “It has been preliminarily established that home-made explosive devices detonated,” the police said on the Telegram messaging service. Lviv’s mayor, writing on Telegram, described the incident as a terrorist act and said a 23-year-old policewoman had died. Twelve...
Welcome to CFO Briefing, a newsletter dedicated to corporate finance and what leaders need to know. This week, we get a read on the consumer with the CFO of furniture retailer Wayfair Inc. But first... Turn, turn, turn The chief financial officer seat, though still at the fulcrum of board confidence, has become one of the most volatile roles in the executive suite. According to new data from leade...
Welcome to CFO Briefing, a newsletter dedicated to corporate finance and what leaders need to know. This week, we get a read on the consumer with the CFO of furniture retailer Wayfair Inc. But first... Turn, turn, turn The chief financial officer seat, though still at the fulcrum of board confidence, has become one of the most volatile roles in the executive suite. According to new data from leadership advisory firm Russell Reynolds Associates, CFO appointments last year increased 10% to 316 globally, a seven-year high across 13 major stock indexes. While retirements accounted for 60% of the CFO departures, role fatigue and burnout were growing factors contributing to the turnover. Jenna Fisher, co-head of Russell Reynolds’ CFO practice, said grueling schedules and mounting responsibilities tied to the role have led many veterans to rethink their priorities “There is a post-COVID notion of ‘we’re going to enjoy life, and we’re not just going to eke out every penny possible’,” she said in an interview. A catalyst for this move is the widening range of flexible positions that are available such as board work, advisory roles and broader enterprise leadership roles – especially in private equity – to which CFOs are in hot demand. Changes in the chief executive officer position also lead to other changes in the C-suite, with the record levels of CEO turnover in 2025 subsequently triggering CFO turnover as well. According to Fisher, more than 50% of companies that appoint a new CEO will see a CFO change within 18 months. In some cases, these outcomes are more relationship-driven than performance-based. “It doesn’t mean that the prior CFO wasn’t performing, but sometimes the new CEO may just want his or her own person,” said Fisher. And then other times, CFOs themselves will opt to leave when leadership shifts occur. Boards are becoming increasingly selective, with experienced CFOs representing 43% of global appointments in 2025, up from 40% in 2024. Today’s CFO role encom...
asbe/iStock via Getty Images The S&P 500 ( SPY ) broke below the range lows at the start of the week but soon recovered and closed around 1% higher to end the week. It was another failed breakdown - the third of 2026 - and February has so far made a net movement of just 7 points. Technical analysis has its limitations in this environment. The best edge lately has been to fade extremes and apparent...
asbe/iStock via Getty Images The S&P 500 ( SPY ) broke below the range lows at the start of the week but soon recovered and closed around 1% higher to end the week. It was another failed breakdown - the third of 2026 - and February has so far made a net movement of just 7 points. Technical analysis has its limitations in this environment. The best edge lately has been to fade extremes and apparent breakdowns or breakouts, but when that is happening for the third or fourth time, it is hard to have confidence it will happen again. Mid-range trades are even worse - the 20-day moving average has been cut through or tested 21 times since mid-December, but it somehow held as resistance at last week's highs. It's a challenging backdrop, and my article last weekend may have been too hasty to report a bearish shift without an actual breakdown. In my defence, I was merely reporting what I saw, but the mistake was to believe it had any relevance in this choppy environment. This week's article takes a slightly different approach and weighs up the technical evidence on both sides. The conclusion is not that different from previous weeks - the S&P 500 seems to be in the process of rolling over, and while there are mixed signals, the main takeaway is that risks outweigh the rewards. S&P 500 Monthly The February bar is now back where it opened, providing more evidence of the lack of sustained movement. On the bullish side, there is obviously a strong uptrend in place and no solid reversal lower yet. Until that reversal develops, you could say there is an upside bias. On the bearish side, momentum is waning, and the pause is happening at major resistance at the channel highs and just above the major target of 6958, which is the 161% Fibonacci extension of the H1 drop . Furthermore, a DeMARK exhaustion count is on bar 9 (of 9) in February. This signal has led to a drop of at least 10% on the last 3 occasions. Lastly, the rally made higher highs in December and January - this suggests...
Here's All The Key Figures Who Have Resigned Over The Epstein Files...So Far We are starting to finally see the beginning of a series of high-profile resignations following the Justice Department’s latest release of millions of pages tied to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The documents—emails, financial records, and photographs—name figures from politics, finance, diplomacy, academia, and...
Here's All The Key Figures Who Have Resigned Over The Epstein Files...So Far We are starting to finally see the beginning of a series of high-profile resignations following the Justice Department’s latest release of millions of pages tied to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The documents—emails, financial records, and photographs—name figures from politics, finance, diplomacy, academia, and the arts. Although inclusion in the files is not evidence of wrongdoing, the renewed scrutiny has prompted several prominent leaders to step down, as was documented by Time yesterday . As we've covered individually, those who have resigned include Thomas Pritzker, Kathy Ruemmler, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Brad Karp, Mona Juul, Peter Mandelson, Miroslav Lajcak, Jack Lang, and David A. Ross. In many instances, the records describe years of contact with Epstein, sometimes extending beyond his 2008 guilty plea for soliciting prostitution from a minor, intensifying public and political pressure. Thomas Pritzker resigned as executive chairman of Hyatt Hotels after emails showed he remained in contact with Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell beyond Epstein’s conviction. Some messages referenced plans to meet, including for dinners. Pritzker said he exercised “terrible judgment” in maintaining the relationships and expressed deep regret, while authorities have not accused him of misconduct. Kathy Ruemmler stepped down as chief legal officer of Goldman Sachs after emails suggested a friendly relationship with Epstein years after his plea deal, including correspondence referencing gifts. Ruemmler, who previously served as White House counsel under President Barack Obama, has said she never represented Epstein and was unaware of his crimes. She later described him as a “monster” and said she regretted ever knowing him. Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem resigned as chairman and CEO of DP World after correspondence indicated a lengthy friendship with Epstein that continued for years. Some emails rele...
On February 17, 2026, Newtyn Management disclosed a buy of 350,000 shares of Array Digital Infrastructure (NYSE:AD) , an estimated $17.3 million trade based on quarterly average pricing. According to an SEC filing dated February 17, 2026, Newtyn Management increased its position in Array Digital Infrastructure (NYSE:AD) by 350,000 shares. The estimated transaction value was $17.3 million, calculat...
On February 17, 2026, Newtyn Management disclosed a buy of 350,000 shares of Array Digital Infrastructure (NYSE:AD) , an estimated $17.3 million trade based on quarterly average pricing. According to an SEC filing dated February 17, 2026, Newtyn Management increased its position in Array Digital Infrastructure (NYSE:AD) by 350,000 shares. The estimated transaction value was $17.3 million, calculated using the average closing price during the quarter. The fund’s quarter-end stake stood at 1,700,000 shares, with the value rising $23.6 million from the previous period, which includes both trading activity and stock price fluctuations. Array Digital Infrastructure is a leading wireless telecommunications provider with significant scale, serving diverse customer segments through multiple distribution channels. The company leverages its extensive network infrastructure and product portfolio to drive recurring service revenues and capitalize on device sales. Strategic focus on both direct and partner-driven sales channels supports broad market reach and competitive positioning in the U.S. telecommunications sector. Continue reading
webking/iStock via Getty Images Market review and outlook The Bloomberg US Intermediate Aggregate Bond Index returned 1.35% during Q4, bringing year-to-date performance for the index to 7.45%, the best annual performance since 2002. After lowering the Fed funds rate by 100 basis points (BPs) in 2024 and an additional 75 bps in 2025, market expectations are for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold...
webking/iStock via Getty Images Market review and outlook The Bloomberg US Intermediate Aggregate Bond Index returned 1.35% during Q4, bringing year-to-date performance for the index to 7.45%, the best annual performance since 2002. After lowering the Fed funds rate by 100 basis points (BPs) in 2024 and an additional 75 bps in 2025, market expectations are for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold for the foreseeable future. The one caveat to this outlook: changes at the Federal Reserve, including the unresolved court case for Lisa Cook, the pending departure of Jerome Powell, and potential dovish appointments from the current administration. While the labor market has shown signs of weakness — the unemployment rate averaged 4.2% in 2025 and rates for recent months have been trending higher — the current rate is significantly lower than the 40-year average of 5.7%. From an inflation standpoint, the recent lowering trend bodes well for the consumer, as Core CPI dipped to 2.6% in the most recent data, following a period of holding at or slightly above 3% in prior months. Updates by sector Treasury The yield curve extended its year-long steepening trend into Q4. The 30-year Treasury yield rose 11.3 bps in Q4 on uncertainty around the future path of inflation, ending the year at 4.84%, while the two-year Treasury yield fell 13.5 bps to 3.47%. The market moved ahead of the Fed early in the year, pushing the two-year yield lower before the Federal Reserve followed. By year end, however, expectations and policy had converged: the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 75 bps over the final four months of the year and the two-year Treasury yield declined nearly 77 bps in 2025. Within the intermediate segment of the Treasury curve, the 5-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.6 bps in Q4 and 65.7 bps in 2025. Corporate The investment-grade corporate market, as measured by the Bloomberg US Intermediate Corporate Bond Index, struggled in Q4, posting the lowest quarterly return of 2025 ...
On Sunday, Michael Burry used an X post to lay out what he described as 26 years of major market calls. That self-audit arrives as Bitcoin lacks utility remains central to his current framework, with Burry arguing the token has not proven durable as a hedge against currency debasement. In the post, Burry shared about his missed opportunity with crypto, writing that he considered buying Bitcoin (CR...
On Sunday, Michael Burry used an X post to lay out what he described as 26 years of major market calls. That self-audit arrives as Bitcoin lacks utility remains central to his current framework, with Burry arguing the token has not proven durable as a hedge against currency debasement. In the post, Burry shared about his missed opportunity with crypto, writing that he considered buying Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) in 2013 after meeting a friend at Lightspeed but did not follow through. Burry also share
Newtyn Management reported a buy of 2,906,420 shares of Enviri Corporation (NYSE:NVRI) in its February 17, 2026, SEC filing, an estimated $43.31 million transaction based on average quarterly pricing. According to a SEC filing dated February 17, 2026, Newtyn Management increased its holding in Enviri Corporation by 2,906,420 shares during the fourth quarter. The estimated transaction value is $43....
Newtyn Management reported a buy of 2,906,420 shares of Enviri Corporation (NYSE:NVRI) in its February 17, 2026, SEC filing, an estimated $43.31 million transaction based on average quarterly pricing. According to a SEC filing dated February 17, 2026, Newtyn Management increased its holding in Enviri Corporation by 2,906,420 shares during the fourth quarter. The estimated transaction value is $43.31 million based on the quarter’s average share price. The fund’s quarter-end position rose in value by $60.94 million, a figure that includes both the share purchase and changes in market price. Enviri Corporation is a leading provider of environmental and waste management solutions for industrial clients, operating through its Harsco Environmental and Harsco Clean Earth segments. The company leverages its expertise in resource recovery and specialty waste processing to serve a broad range of industries under long-term contracts. Continue reading
Over the past year, Merck 's (NYSE: MRK) shares have climbed by 46%. That seems a bit surprising. Last year, the company's financial results were relatively weak as it faced declining revenue for one of its growth franchises, HPV vaccines Gardasil and Gardasil 9. The healthcare leader could also face increased competition for its most important product, cancer drug Keytruda. Despite all that, Merc...
Over the past year, Merck 's (NYSE: MRK) shares have climbed by 46%. That seems a bit surprising. Last year, the company's financial results were relatively weak as it faced declining revenue for one of its growth franchises, HPV vaccines Gardasil and Gardasil 9. The healthcare leader could also face increased competition for its most important product, cancer drug Keytruda. Despite all that, Merck remains a top stock to buy and hold for a while, especially for income seekers. Here's more. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
marchmeena29/iStock via Getty Images Commentary as of 12/31/25 The fund posted a return of -1.52% (Class I shares) for the fourth quarter of 2025. The largest contributors to relative performance were investment decisions in the health care, financials, and consumer staples sectors. The largest detractors from relative returns were investment decisions in the communication services, information te...
marchmeena29/iStock via Getty Images Commentary as of 12/31/25 The fund posted a return of -1.52% (Class I shares) for the fourth quarter of 2025. The largest contributors to relative performance were investment decisions in the health care, financials, and consumer staples sectors. The largest detractors from relative returns were investment decisions in the communication services, information technology ( IT ), and industrials sectors. The largest exposures were in the IT, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors. During the quarter, the fund increased its allocations to the IT and health care sectors, and reduced its exposures to the financials and consumer discretionary sectors. Contributors Stock selection in the health care sector, namely in the pharmaceuticals industry, was the largest contributor to relative performance. In the financials sector, security selection in the financial services industry proved beneficial. Allocation decisions in the consumer staples distribution & retail industry, within the consumer staples sector, also boosted relative results. Detractors The largest detractor was security selection in the communication services sector, notably in the interactive media & services industry. In the IT sector, selection decisions in the software industry hindered performance. Another meaningful detractor included stock selection in the industrials sector, namely in the aerospace & defense industry. Further insight U.S. equities enter 2026 with strong momentum after another standout year. Despite questions about enthusiasm driven by artificial intelligence ( AI ) and global performance dispersion, the macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive, with Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, resilient consumers, upgraded growth forecasts, and policy tailwinds boosting competitiveness. Earnings revisions favor U.S. companies, and leadership is broadening beyond the so-called mega-cap stocks, creating opportunities for active investors. St...
Margaret Hayne, Co-President & CCO of Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) , disposed of 18,666 shares via indirect open-market sales on Feb. 2 and Feb. 3, 2026, for a transaction value of approximately $1.3 million, according to a SEC Form 4 filing . Transaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average purchase price ($71.87); post-transaction value based on Feb. 3, 2026 market close ($71.87). Contin...
Margaret Hayne, Co-President & CCO of Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) , disposed of 18,666 shares via indirect open-market sales on Feb. 2 and Feb. 3, 2026, for a transaction value of approximately $1.3 million, according to a SEC Form 4 filing . Transaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average purchase price ($71.87); post-transaction value based on Feb. 3, 2026 market close ($71.87). Continue reading